Aladdin aluminum industry chain service platform report: In December 2018, the Central Economic Work Conference proposed "new infrastructure" for the first time, that is, the construction of new infrastructure. The meeting emphasized that "it is necessary to increase the technological transformation and equipment update of the manufacturing industry, accelerate the pace of 5G commercialization, strengthen the construction of new infrastructure such as artificial intelligence, industrial Internet, and Internet of Things, and increase investment in intercity transportation, logistics, and municipal infrastructure. To make up for the shortcomings of rural infrastructure and public service facilities, "new infrastructure" has attracted much attention since 2020. The Central Work Conference pointed out that new infrastructure mainly includes 5G infrastructure, UHV, intercity high-speed railway and intercity rail transit, Seven fields including new energy vehicle charging piles, big data centers, artificial intelligence, and industrial Internet.
The 5G infrastructure, ultra-high voltage, intercity high-speed railway and rail transit, and new energy vehicles involved in the new infrastructure are important areas of aluminum consumption, and their large-scale investment and construction may drive a new round of aluminum consumption growth. Combined with the recent investment of nearly 50 trillion yuan announced by various provinces (of which the total planned investment in 2020 is 7.6 trillion yuan), and considering the unit consumption of aluminum in various fields, it is estimated that the new infrastructure will bring nearly 969,900 tons of aluminum in 2020. Consumption increment, this is the visible increment without considering that the vigorous development of charging piles will greatly promote the consumption of new energy vehicles. If the growth of new energy vehicles is considered, the marginal contribution of aluminum consumption brought by the new infrastructure is even more impressive. The following is the calculated aluminum consumption in various fields.
The construction of 5G is ready to go, and the total amount of aluminum used in base stations is limited
The year 2019 is known as the first year of 5G commercial use. Countries are competing to introduce policies to encourage 5G construction, and infrastructure construction represented by 5G is ushering in a period of rapid development. On December 22, Li Yizhong, the former Minister of Industry and Information Technology, said: China will build 6 million 5G base stations in seven years, with a total investment of close to 1.2 trillion to 1.5 trillion. By the end of December 2019, 5G network services that have entered commercial development across the country have A total of more than 126,000 sets of 5G network base stations have been opened, and by the end of 2020, we will strive to achieve 5G network coverage in all prefecture-level cities across the country. Based on this calculation, the total number of base stations built this year will reach 650,000 to 800,000.
According to the survey, the demand for aluminum in 5G construction is mainly concentrated in base stations, accounting for about 90%, while the aluminum used in 5G base stations is concentrated in photovoltaic inverters, 5G antennas, 5G base station heat dissipation materials and thermal transmission, etc. The main material is alloy aluminum plate 3003 and 1100, according to the current proportion of aluminum used by mainstream equipment manufacturers of 40kg/unit, 5G base stations will consume about 28,000 tons of aluminum in 2020. The high probability will consume 25,000 tons of aluminum.
The speed of high-speed rail and rail transit is speeding up again, and the aluminum used in transportation is growing steadily
At the beginning of 2020, the new crown epidemic continued to ferment, and the downward pressure on the global economy increased sharply. Infrastructure such as high-speed rail and rail transit, as the glue that drives social and economic development, has attracted much attention.
According to the data of the regional development and reform commissions, urban rail transit projects (subways and trams) in 12 regions were approved by the national and provincial development and reform commissions in 2019. There are about 59 urban rail transit lines involved, and the total project investment is about 9700. billion. Among them, about 29 lines are already under construction (2 lines have entered the trial operation period), and the remaining about 30 lines are expected to be fully constructed in 2020. "Considering that the urban rail construction period is usually longer than one year, the investment scale within the year is expected to be about 40%-50% of the total investment, that is, the urban rail investment scale is expected to reach about 400 billion to 500 billion yuan in 2020, and the operating mileage of rail transit It is expected to exceed 8,000 kilometers. Among the rail transit operating lines, mainly subways, urban express rails and trams, subways account for 75.6%, urban express rails account for 11.1%, and trams account for 5.7%. Bring about 51,300 tons of aluminum consumption.
In terms of railways, according to the data disclosed by the Ministry of Transport at the beginning of the year, the railway investment plan for 2020 is 800 billion yuan. In the impact of the epidemic and the government’s statement, the new infrastructure is making efforts, and railway investment is likely to be increased. According to the data released by China National Railway Group, by the end of 2019, China's railway operating mileage will be more than 139,000 kilometers, including 35,000 kilometers of high-speed rail. The new line planned to be put into operation in 2020 is 4,000 kilometers, of which 2,000 kilometers are high-speed rail. In 2020, the high-speed rail is expected to increase the consumption of aluminum by 24,500 tons.
图表 2 近年来我国铁路营业里程统计
UHV has become a new demand growth point for aluminum for power use
Since 2020, the State Grid has introduced 12 measures to promote the full recovery of construction in response to the impact of the epidemic and the resumption of work and production of enterprises. The State Grid has also increased its investment from the previous plan of 408 billion yuan to 450 billion yuan, of which the investment scale of UHV construction projects is 181.1 billion yuan. It can drive social investment of 360 billion yuan, and the overall scale is 541.1 billion yuan. At the same time, the State Grid recently researched and compiled the "Preliminary Work Plan for UHV and Inter-provincial 500 kV and above AC and DC Projects in 2020", which clearly stated that it will accelerate the annual approval and preliminary forecast of 5 AC and 5 DC UHV projects such as the Nanyang-Jingmen-Changsha project. Feasibility study work, actively promote the construction of key projects under construction, resumption of Qinghai-Henan, Yazhong-Jiangxi ± 800 kV UHV DC, Zhangbei flexible DC, Mengxi-Jinzhong, Zhangbei-Xiongan 1000 kV UHV AC, etc. A number of major projects are being built, and a new round of UHV construction is imminent.
UHV aluminum is mainly concentrated in wires and cables. In 2020, the construction length of UHV wires and cables nationwide is expected to reach 8,500 kilometers. Combined with the completion of some UHV projects approved in 2018, it is expected that the annual construction length will reach about 9,000 kilometers. The annual use of aluminum for UHV wires and cables is expected to reach 869,100 tons.
*Note: This article is reprinted from the Aladdin aluminum industry chain service platform